Who is the favorite to win the Chase?

[rbroyles]

For all practical purposes, the Chase has come down to three drivers with three races to go. Although it is mathematically possible for all twelve Chasers to win, it is very unlikely any others could move into true contention.

It is now at the point where any miscue means elimination, in fact I'm saying it will take finishing all three final races in the top five. Someone will do it, perhaps more than one. With the threesome of Johnson, Hamlin and Harvick being separated by only 38 pts, any can win it.

Johnson has the advantage of having been here before and winning it, not to mention the lead. Hamlin follows by fourteen points, only two positions and a lap leader bonus out of taking the lead. Harvick has the most to make up, the 38 points. Neither has been champion before, so the "hungry" level should be equal, but does the desire to win an incredible fifth straight on the part of Johnson match the hunger level of the other two?

Team strength is important, so who has that advantage? The 48 team certainly comes to mind for me, and the 29 team has just switched the over-the-wall gang with the 33 car, but that could prove to be more of a disadvantage.

Past history at the remaining three tracks could be insightful, so how does that work out? At Texas Johnson has one win, seven top 5s and ten top 10s, Hamlin has one, four and seven with Harvick having zero, three and seven. Advantage Johnson? Well maybe, but Hamlin's win came in the first race this year.

At Phoenix, Johnson has four wins, Hamlin one and Harvick zero. At Homestead Hamlin has the only win from last year among the three contenders. Johnson has the most wins at the three tracks, Hamlin has the most recent wins.

While it appears Johnson should have the edge, with Hamlin next most likely, I am going to predict the winner of the Chase to be Kevin Harvick. Why? Well it is that intangible thing, the finishing second at Talladega in a car that should have been junk kind of determination and fickle luck seems to be on his side. We shall see.

[TennesseeFan07]

I sure hope you're right. However, I'll go with Johnson like I have the previous 3 seasons. I can't go against him until he's been defeated. If Harvick can manage a top 5 finish at Texas, he should be really good at both Phoenix and Homestead. I'm still waiting on Hamlin to make a mistake. I think he will before it's said and done.

[rbroyles]

Originally Posted by TennesseeFan07

I sure hope you're right. However, I'll go with Johnson like I have the previous 3 seasons. I can't go against him until he's been defeated. If Harvick can manage a top 5 finish at Texas, he should be really good at both Phoenix and Homestead. I'm still waiting on Hamlin to make a mistake. I think he will before it's said and done.

I agree on Hamlin, thought he had made it at 'Dega. Texas may be the most likely track to knock someone out of contention.

[ptclaus98]

I thought Harvick was done. I was cringing thinking about how bad he was going to abuse his crew.

[Lexvol]

I'm not a NASCAR guy, but in this economy I think Johnson's domination is hurting the sport. They seem to be in need of a good villain.

[rbroyles]

Originally Posted by Lexvol

I'm not a NASCAR guy, but in this economy I think Johnson's domination is hurting the sport. They seem to be in need of a good villain.

For not being a NASCAR guy, you hit the nail pretty much on the head. It seems everytime a driver tries to establish himself as a villain, NASCAR stomps him back to blandness. The closest guy to that role is Kyle Busch, but he is throttled back as much as they can. Kevin Harvick has had his moments, but he falls short of getting fans riled up.

What really is needed is a good guy/bad guy rivalry like Bill Elliot and Dale, Sr., or Waltrip and Yarborough. Or going farther back Petty and Pearson.

[doozer]

i think what they need is a bad guy who can beat the good guy. so far nobody can beat Jimmie Johnson.

[rbroyles]

Originally Posted by doozer

i think what they need is a bad guy who can beat the good guy. so far nobody can beat Jimmie Johnson.

I don't care if he is a good guy or bad guy, just beat Johnson. That is what made Boyer's points penalty so stupid, he may have had a chance. RCR is putting their efforts into the 29 car at the 33 car's expense. Boyer is the only one to win more than one race even without his crew and less than 100% effort.

[615 Vol]

In a dream world, Nascar would love Dale Jr. (at DEI or RCR) and Jeff Gordon to go at it each year for the championship.

[Yankee_Vol]

Hamlin.....I'm partial to Joe Gibbs

[rbroyles]

Originally Posted by Yankee_Vol

Hamlin.....I'm partial to Joe Gibbs

If I were a Cup driver, I would want to drive for JGR over the rest.

[Yankee_Vol]

Originally Posted by rbroyles

If I were a Cup driver, I would want to drive for JGR over the rest.

Same here....I used to be a Redskins fan until Dan Snyder ruined the franchise

[TennFan]

With two races left Denny is up on Jimmie by 33 and Kevin by 59. That's rough on Kevin. That means he has to be in the top 3 to win and hope that Jimmie or Denny end up no higher than 10th in both races.

For Jimmie to win he has to beat Denny by at least 4 spots in each race. Phoenix is a good track for Jimmie. He has 4 wins in the last 10 races there. There are 3 guys who have 5 top 5's there: (1) Denny, (2) Tony, (3) Carl. Kyle Busch has 5 top 10's in the past 10 and Carl & Jeff Gordon have 3 top 10's in the last 10.
It wouldn't surprise me to see Denny or Kevin outside the top 10 and Jimmie make a top 5 or top 10. The #48 has to be as careful as anyone.

[rbroyles]

If Harvick can manage to win and Hamlin finishes 11th, Harvick would be ahead of him by one point if Hamlin doesn't lead a lap. If Johnson finished 6th, Harvick would be ahead of him by two points if Johnson doesn't lead. A very plausible scenario.

[TennesseeFan07]

I bet Hamlin slips up this weekend. Just a gut feeling.
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