Can We Finally Put The Moneyball Myth To Rest?

[hatvol96]

Watching Barry Zito shut out the Mets last night reminded me of something I was discussing with some folks a couple of weeks ago. All of the Billy Beane hype from earlier this decade was a load of crap. Drafting fatass college catchers because they had high OBPs and minimizing the value of closers didn't make the A's good. Their success was almost completely predicated on the drafting of Zito, Mulder, and Hudson, all of whom were elite college prospects. Throw in Giambi, Tejada, and the pre breaking down Chavez and you have the "secret" to Oakland's success. Now that those guys are gone, all Moneyball Billy has given the fans in Oaktown are the Jack Custs of the world.

[wounded mullet]

Baseball on a budget is tough, that being said Beane's philosophy of selling high and reloading their farm system made them into a glorified farm system for the rest of the contenders who needed a bat or a SP around the trade deadline. Cant complain about the fans not coming out when you constantly pull the rug out from underneath them.

[hatvol96]

Originally Posted by wounded mullet

Baseball on a budget is tough, that being said Beane's philosophy of selling high and reloading their farm system made them into a glorified farm system for the rest of the contenders who needed a bat or a SP around the trade deadline. Cant complain about the fans not coming out when you constantly pull the rug out from underneath them.

Minnesota has been better under budgetary constraints than Oakland. The Marlins cashed in with a miniscule payroll. The fact of the matter is that Beane got a whole bunch of credit for being a visionary when all he really did was be lucky enough to draft three top of the rotation studs in short order.

[wounded mullet]

Originally Posted by hatvol96

Minnesota has been better under budgetary constraints than Oakland. The Marlins cashed in with a minuscule payroll. The fact of the matter is that Beane got a whole bunch of credit for being a visionary when all he really did was be lucky enough to draft three top of the rotation studs in short order.

Beane was no doubt vastly overrated,i think it was more spawned out of the culture back in the late 90's-early 00's when the microscope was firmly on the cash happy Yankees dynasty and the salary cap/revenue share debate. At that time you had a small market team that seemed to contend every year which of course made Beane the poster boy for small market success.
The fact is you have to suck for a while and draft some can't miss prospects to have a fighting chance in the MLB market. it's just about how you handle it after you sign them that sets you apart.

I know im bias but Andrew Friedman is the best GM in the business right now when it comes to the model of how a small market team should be run.

[JTrainDavis]

Originally Posted by hatvol96

Minnesota has been better under budgetary constraints than Oakland. The Marlins cashed in with a miniscule payroll. The fact of the matter is that Beane got a whole bunch of credit for being a visionary when all he really did was be lucky enough to draft three top of the rotation studs in short order.

fair enough, Beane happened to roll Yahtzee on tthe first roll and made himself seem great as a result.
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[NYYVol]

Billy caught lightning in a bottle.

His philosophy makes outsiders feel good and makes a good story.

But it has some serious flaws.
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[615 Vol]

Huston Street was another nice pitcher drafted by Oakland. He's pretty solid now as the Rockies closer.

Tampa Bay is another small market team that has been good the last few years.

[615 Vol]

Here is the MLB team payrolls.

MLB Salaries - CBSSports.com

I just noticed the Rangers were fairly low on the list. They have a lot of good players it seems to have such a low payroll. San Diego is also doing more than the A's.

[VOLinthaNATI]

Originally Posted by hatvol96

Minnesota has been better under budgetary constraints than Oakland. The Marlins cashed in with a miniscule payroll. The fact of the matter is that Beane got a whole bunch of credit for being a visionary when all he really did was be lucky enough to draft three top of the rotation studs in short order.

Their scouting system is unbelievable. They ALWAYS have a wealth of young talent. They lose some and they just reload with new young talent. It's unreal actually...

[hatvol96]

Originally Posted by 615 Vol

Here is the MLB team payrolls.

MLB Salaries - CBSSports.com

I just noticed the Rangers were fairly low on the list. They have a lot of good players it seems to have such a low payroll. San Diego is also doing more than the A's.

Once Cliff Lee's numbers hit, their payroll won't be small.
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[wounded mullet]

Nice to see hat talking baseball.

[tigervol9802]

Originally Posted by wounded mullet

Beane was no doubt vastly overrated,i think it was more spawned out of the culture back in the late 90's-early 00's when the microscope was firmly on the cash happy Yankees dynasty and the salary cap/revenue share debate. At that time you had a small market team that seemed to contend every year which of course made Beane the poster boy for small market success.
The fact is you have to suck for a while and draft some can't miss prospects to have a fighting chance in the MLB market. it's just about how you handle it after you sign them that sets you apart.

I know im bias but Andrew Friedman is the best GM in the business right now when it comes to the model of how a small market team should be run.

I would almost argue he is the model of how any franchise southeast of New York should be run. He has done an excellent job making the Rays contenders.

[GahLee]

Originally Posted by hatvol96

Watching Barry Zito shut out the Mets last night reminded me of something I was discussing with some folks a couple of weeks ago. All of the Billy Beane hype from earlier this decade was a load of crap. Drafting fatass college catchers because they had high OBPs and minimizing the value of closers didn't make the A's good. Their success was almost completely predicated on the drafting of Zito, Mulder, and Hudson, all of whom were elite college prospects. Throw in Giambi, Tejada, and the pre breaking down Chavez and you have the "secret" to Oakland's success. Now that those guys are gone, all Moneyball Billy has given the fans in Oaktown are the Jack Custs of the world.

What is the myth?

It certainly isn't winning baseball.

[Ohio Vol]

Interesting thread. Oakland has the third-lowest payroll in baseball, is above .500, and Jeremy Brown actually made it to Oakland as an MLB player before retiring.

Beane's problem was that he talked, and he talked a lot. When a lot of influential people read the book and wondered how this ragtag operation could have success and determined that it boiled down to two things (OBP and slugging), the market price for high OBP players skyrocketed. JD Drew went from hopelessly overpaid in Los Angeles ($11 million a year) to market value in Boston ($14 million a year); the market adjusted that quickly. Once the big money teams got involved, any small corner of the marketplace that Oakland had was gone for good, and it then all comes down to good trades and excellent scouting.

His other problem is that he tends to have a very narrow view of what can and cannot be used by a winning team. Ray Durham being acquired and then forbidden from stealing bases is a great example. Yes, there is a point in percentages where stealing poorly can be detrimental to the team as a whole (below 73%, last I checked). But to take a perfectly capable base thief who knows how to pick his spots and say "You may have this excellent skill, but we're not going to use it" is dumb.

I say that if I were to put a baseball team together, Bill James would be the GM, Dr. Mike Marshall would be the overall pitching coach (MLB plus all farm teams), and Earl Weaver the manager.

[Vercingetorix]

The dirty little secret that you read about Beane is that he is apparently way more interested in soccer these days than he is in the sport that he actually has a job in. It's tough to be a great manager in baseball if you spend more time following the EPL than you do the AL.

And yeah, once the big market teams started paying attention to OBP and scouting then Oakland's window of opportunity was gone. I said when that book came out that facilitating it was the stupidest thing Beane could have done.