Opener is a likely L per ESPN

#126
#126
If we do happen to beat USU fairly handily Sally bar the doors on expectations thereafter. I love it SSDSeason.
 
#129
#129
golfballs said:
His explanation is logical
Click to expand...

Well....Butch has the M.I.T. dude in his statistical corner then:

The Metric's Simplicity

The brilliance of Chou's Efficiency Metric lies in its simplicity. To rate the offense and defense separately you just find the quotient of the yards gained or allowed by a team over the total points scored for or against that team and it will give you the efficiency rating. If you want the overall team score, you find both the offensive and defensive ratings and then subtract the offensive rating from the defensive rating, then multiply that number by the team's strength of schedule to get one all-encompassing score.
This works so well because you want your team to have a high number on defense and a low number on offense, therefore when you find the difference between the two it embraces all aspects of the game. If the defense forces a three-and-out, then the punt returner gets some good blocks and has a decent return to give the offense a short field and the offense capitalizes on that opportunity by putting up seven points then that will greatly help your rating because all three phases of the game did their jobs to put points on the board.

What this means is that over the past two years, teams coached by Butch Jones forced their opponents to go 19.92, on average, for every point they scored. When you stretch that out into actual ways to score in football, it would be the equivalent of saying teams had to gain nearly 60 yards (59.76) to score a field goal or almost 140 yards (139.44) for a touchdown and the resulting extra point.

Conversely, teams coached by Jones didn't even have to gain 40 yards (38.22) per field goal, and less than 90 yards (89.18) per touchdown. Then when you get the balance between the two and factor in strength of schedule, you have an overall Team Efficiency Rating of 3.30. Keep in mind that this number can be negative, which the large majority of the NCAA's coaches overall ratings are. For some perspective, Mark Richt, who has ranked very well (15th) over the last two seasons has had an overall efficiency of 0.80, so while 3.30 doesn't seem like a very high number, it's actually good enough to make Butch Jones the fourth most efficient head coach in college football over the last two years.

OVERALL EFFICIENCY
1. Nick Saban 10.01
2. Les Miles 9.33
3. Brian Kelly 3.83
4. Butch Jones 3.30
5. Bill Snyder 3.12
6. David Shaw 3.04
7. Chip Kelly 2.68
8. Bret Bielema 2.35
9. Will Muschamp 2.23
10. Chris Petersen 2.20

DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY
1. Nick Saban 22.37
2. Brian Kelly 22.22
3. Les Miles 20.76
4. Butch Jones 19.92
5. Chris Petersen 18.84
6. Steve Addazio 18.44
7. Will Muschamp 18.24
8. David Shaw 17.87
9. Dan Mullen 17.64
10. Brady Hoke 17.53
 
#130
#130
chatt-townVOL said:
"I'm picking Tennessee to finish higher than Mizzou in the SEC East. Now this was a tough decision, but it comes down to line play. Tennessee isn't going to be very good in the skill positions this year, but those offensive and defensive lines are for real!"

-Kevin Carter on College Football Live 2 weeks ago




Moral of the story: ESPN has absolutely no clue what they are talking about.
Click to expand...
Not very skilled huh? ..... Ya seems legit. Smh. THATS TURRIBLE!
 
#132
#132
DD4ME said:
Some teams have tougher openers than I was aware of for sure. In fact if I was a writer that would have been my article not UT and USU. I'm in agreement some would certainly be more likley too, as a fan. With all that said we know what all is going on with these types of reports and yet we as a fan base bite every time. Fact of the matter is nothing in our recent resume says we are gonna whip USU's ass. Which is really the bigger point. When random prognosticators make random prognostications. Frankly I love it for our team's motivation. I hope they pour it on so the team gets fired up.
Click to expand...

The only "good" imo is that UT has a great opportunity to "surprise" people. Stinchcomb (sp?) has been virtually impossible to watch when discussing UT on SECNetwork.

The other side is those guys almost always blow it off as if they really didn't say/mean what they said.

I hope UT does what I think they will... and a bunch of "experts" are left with their mouths hanging open.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#133
#133
golfballs said:
His explanation is logical
Click to expand...

It would if they had not lost 3 of 4 starters in their secondary, a couple of LB's including their best one, and a starting DL.

Against that, UT has very good talent at WR going up a still very unsettled and highly suspect secondary.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#134
#134
golfballs said:
His ratings are opponent-adjusted which accounts for SOS. It says so in the article.
Click to expand...

It is virtually impossible to opponent adjust something like that. The cumulative effect of playing quality opponents every week as opposed to having "off" weeks cannot be truly measured... but it might be the most substantial thing to consider.

I would submit that almost any SEC D who had played USU's schedule last year would have been similarly ranked.
 
#135
#135
Personally I hate these guys on TV talking out their back sides like they know something noone else does. I'm just ready for football let's get it on! And no way do I think Utah State wins on Sunday night. Go Vols!
 
#136
#136
ESPN relies on low information viewers.

Barnett will be in the backfield early and often. This could be a six sack game.

USU front seven will be 6" taller after game from all the steamrolling they get. They are gonna look like bloodied fathead decals.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#137
#137
Orangedogsrule said:
Can't believe I'm 63 an playing that game.













ESPN really does hate us.
Click to expand...

Finally... someone on this site admits to being older than ME! :rock:

Since when was the returning Utah State defense supposed to be dominant? (per the article) I've heard quite a bit about their QB and RB... Anybody heard mention of a ferocious Aggie D?
 
#138
#138
TommyOler said:
Finally... someone on this site admits to being older than ME! :rock:

Since when was the returning Utah State defense supposed to be dominant? (per the article) I've heard quite a bit about their QB and RB... Anybody heard mention of a ferocious Aggie D?
Click to expand...

Couple of solid LB's and a couple of solid D-linemen. Defensive backs will struggle all game long. If our O-line can do a decent job this game will be all but over in the 3rd.

Interesting tidbit, the author of the article has an interesting SOS chart. If anybody wishes to give him a click it is worth a visit. BCF Toys - Feature
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#139
#139
Algorithms are based on past performance (often multiple seasons + last season's stats) and can be weighted oddly depending on who is doing the model. They're good for predicting groups - IOW they'll do every team and get slightly more right in terms of Wins than wrong but poor when it comes to predicting at the individual team level.

They also don't gauge things like roster changes/player upgrades or individual improvement. In other words, when it comes to one game they're just not very good at their predictions.

Oh and ESPN hates us. :)
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#141
#141
sjt18 said:
The only "good" imo is that UT has a great opportunity to "surprise" people. Stinchcomb (sp?) has been virtually impossible to watch when discussing UT on SECNetwork.

The other side is those guys almost always blow it off as if they really didn't say/mean what they said.

I hope UT does what I think they will... and a bunch of "experts" are left with their mouths hanging open.
Click to expand...
Is Stinch the guy who said we still had the KY streak going?

SEC Network better step up their game if they're gonna play in front of SEC fans.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#143
#143
Sounds to me like nobody really has a clue how good we will or won't be or how good USU will be against SEC talent on the road.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#144
#144
GAVol said:
Sounds to me like nobody really has a clue how good we will or won't be or how good USU will be against SEC talent on the road.
Click to expand...

I have read that Utah State's front 7 is pretty good but they lost 3 guys in the secondary (2 were drafted).

I know that North is our only proven deep vertical threat down the field, but you have to think that Tennessee's WRs against their secondary is a mismatch that Tennessee needs to try and exploit.

I would expect Utah State to put up a decent number of points.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#146
#146
Orange-n-White said:
How many times has Utah St. played among a 100k sea of orange? They will be overwhelmed to say the least.
Click to expand...

Maybe for the first few minutes of the game. There is some navel gazing that fans of "big" schools do about the size of their stadiums/crowds when a small school comes in to play there.

Of course, it definitely doesn't hurt to have a crowd that large and that loud but the impact of that on the game itself is overstated.
 
#147
#147
Orange-n-White said:
How many times has Utah St. played among a 100k sea of orange? They will be overwhelmed to say the least.
Click to expand...

They've been in big stadiums before. It will have an impact, but I'm not sure how much more it will really impact them vs any other road team.

The bigger impact will be if our defense can show up early and look legit. The crowd effect will follow.
 
#149
#149
TNinSC said:
Vegas has UT favored by only 5 1/2.

Espn also had us getting upset by western kentucky last season
Click to expand...

I know it's cool to say ESPN hates us. But if you're a football analyst, after 6 years of crappy football are you really going to say the Vols have turned the corner until you actually see something on the field? We're easy to pick against.
 
#150
#150
TNinSC said:
Vegas has UT favored by only 5 1/2.

Espn also had us getting upset by western kentucky last season
Click to expand...

Admittedly, Utah State this year is a better team than Western Kentucky was last year.

I think this is more analogous to the Cincinnati game a few years ago. If I remember, the line on that game moved from something like Tennessee -6 to Tennessee -4 during the week and that was a popular upset pick. We know how that game turned out.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top