D4H's 2017 NBA Draft Preview

#1

Dobbs 4 Heisman

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#1
Its what you've been waiting for. After the overwhelmingly positive response to my 2017 NFL Draft preview and review, I've decided to do it for the NBA Draft as well. As I've said before, I'm actually a bigger NBA fan than I am a football fan. Basketball has always been my first love and the NBA Draft has always been something I've followed closely. So without further ado, here are my rankings of the top prospects in the 2017 NBA Draft:

The Elite (players who should be perennial all-stars)
1. Jayson Tatum - future superstar; NBA comp: Paul George/Grant Hill
2. Lonzo Ball - future superstar; NBA comp: Penny Hardaway/Jason Kidd

- Unlike most people, I view this as a two player draft. Its all about Jayson Tatum and Lonzo Ball for me. I rate both players as the top prospect in this draft by a wide margin. Its honestly a question of taste for me between the two. If you want a high scoring athletic wing who will be an elite two-way player, then you pick Jayson Tatum. However, if you want an elite point guard who will be the consummate floor general to lead your team, then you pick Lonzo Ball. Both should be perennial all-stars and among the best players at their position for the next 10 years. You all know how I much I love Lonzo Ball. I believe he's an incredible player with one of a kind passing ability. He's a true PG in every sense of the word very much like Jason Kidd. However, he's taller and more athletic than Kidd. Which is why I think Penny Hardaway is a more apt comparison. He's the type of player whose impact will go beyond stats. He should help turn around the Lakers franchise. The other player I love in this draft is Jayson Tatum. The kid just has it all. He's tall (6'8"), he's long (6'11" wingspan), he's athletic, he has a great shooting stroke, incredible one on one skills, and a body that once he gets stronger should allow him to play anywhere from SG to PF. He should honestly be the consensus #1 overall pick in this draft instead of Markelle Fultz. He has everything you are looking for from a great wing in the NBA. He'll be one of the best small forwards in the NBA by the time he's 23 years old.

Potential to be Stars but unlikely (players with immense talent but significant questions)
3. Harry Giles - potential all-star (if healthy); NBA comp: Chris Bosh

- Its really sad what happened to this kid because before the knee injuries he was the consensus #1 pick in this class. He was a freakish 6'10" athlete with incredible first step quickness, speed, and leaping ability. He looked like a young Kevin Garnett. A guy who could lock down the paint and perimeter defensively who was also versatile enough offensively to be a point power forward. I personally would be willing to spend a top 5-10 pick on him just on the off-chance he somehow returns to even half of the player he used to be. He's naturally talented enough that outside of Jayson Tatum and Lonzo Ball, I would consider drafting him ahead of anyone else in this draft. I don't know if he ever returns to the player he once was but he's talented enough to take a chance on.

4. Jonathan Isaac - solid starter w/all-star potential; NBA comp: poor man's Kevin Durant (more defense; less offense)

- This is a player who has some incredible talent. In terms of physique he's very similar to Kevin Durant. However, he lacks Durant's refinement offensively when he came into the league. He does, however, show more promise as a defender early in his career than Durant did at 19 years old. I personally think Jonathan Isaac will be more of an elite role player (ala Draymond Green) than a guy who can be the first option on a good team. The perfect fit for him would be a team like the Minnesota Timberwolves that already have young stars like Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. That would be a team in which his defensive skills and ability to catch-n-shoot the 3-ball would make him a very valuable piece on a potential contender of the future.

5. Josh Jackson - solid starter w/all-star potential; NBA comp: Jimmy Butler/DeMar DeRozan

- This kid has some intriguing talent. But he has serious flaws. He's got a questionable handle, suspect shot, and his overall skill set as a player in the half-court against a set defense is limited. Its laughable that he's higher on most boards than Jayson Tatum. Josh Jackson if everything works out for him could turn into another Jimmy Butler. A really good 2-way player who can get you 20ppg on offense and offer you elite perimeter defense on the other side. However, he's also just as likely to end up as another Gerald Green. A great athlete who never quite figures it out and ends up being a bench-warmer. He still has quite a lot of talent so I would take a shot at him if Jayson Tatum, Lonzo Ball, and Jonathan Isaac are off the board.

Solid Starters/Role Players (players who lack the talent to be stars but should contribute to a team)

6. Markelle Fultz - solid starter; NBA comp: Eric Gordon/CJ McCollum

- This might be one of the most overrated NBA prospects in quite some time. Don't get me wrong, the kid has some talent. But its definitely not #1 overall pick caliber talent. As you can see, my NBA comps for him are Eric Gordon and CJ McCollum. First and foremost, Markelle Fultz is not a PG. He lacks the sort of vision and natural passing skills required to be a PG. He's an undersized 2-guard. He also has mediocre athleticism. Anyone who think this guy is in the same class as Russell Westbrook or John Wall when it comes to athleticism will be sorely disappointed. Markelle Fultz is actually a good fit for Philadelphia (although I wouldn't have traded up to get him and given up other picks). Fultz can provide decent spacing as a shooter for Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. He can also score one on one in the half court when those guys are on the bench. Defensively, however, he's a big-time liability. Also, I can't overlook the fact his team won only 9 games in college. That tells me has poor leadership qualities and other intangibles.

7. Justin Jackson - solid starter/role player; NBA comp: Nicolas Batum

- Very underrated player. I think he can be a solid starter in the NBA. He's the modern 3nD SF. That means he can play great defense on the wing against the other teams best offensive player. And on offense he can provide spacing by being a great catch n shoot player from the 3-point line. Someone will draft him in the middle of the first round and end up with a solid starter.

8. Dennis Smith Jr. - starter/role player; NBA comp: Emmanuel Mudiay
9. De'Aaron Fox - starter/role player; NBA comp: Brandon Knight

- Both players are very similar to Emmanuel Mudiay who was drafted by the Denver Nuggets a few years ago. Neither is quite as big as Mudiay but both are just as explosive if not moreso. Smith and Fox's big issue, just as it was and is Mudiay's big issue, is SHOOTING. If they become more competent shooters from the perimeter then both have a chance to maybe become really good players in the league. But if not, then they'll be be just like Emmanuel Mudiay and Brandon Knight. Guys on bad teams trying to fight for minutes.

10. Terrance Ferguson - starter/role player; NBA comp - JR Smith/Terrance Ross
11. Malik Monk - starter/role player; NBA comp - Lou Williams

- I honestly don't know why Malik Monk is rated as a potential top 10 pick but Terrance Ferguson isn't. Ferguson was more highly thought of when they were both coming out of high school. Ferguson is 3 inches taller (6'7" vs 6'3"). Ferguson is more athletic. And Ferguson is just as good a shooter. And Ferguson is younger. There is literally no reason to pick Malik Monk ahead of Terrance Ferguson unless you just think going to college at Kentucky for one year rather than heading to Australia to play one year of professional basketball overseas makes someone a better player. Both players are very similar but I think Ferguson has the higher ceiling. Monk will at best be a bench scorer like Lou Williams. Ferguson gives you the potential to be a starting SG that offers great perimeter defense and elite 3-point shooting ala JR Smith in his prime.

Best of the Rest

12. Zach Collins
13. Lauri Markkanen
14. Jarrett Allen
15. Justin Patton
16. Bam Adebayo

- All 5 of these big men are similar which is why I've grouped them the same. Now this doesn't mean they have similar skill sets. In fact the opposite is true. All of these big men have different strengths. The thing that ties them together is they all do just one thing really good and are deficient at nearly everything else. For example, Lauri Markkanen is an amazing outside shooter for a guy who is 7-feet tall. However, he can't rebound or protect the rim. So what value does he have as a center if all he can do is shoot 3s but can't play defense or rebound? Similarly Justin Patton and Jarrett Allen are really good at protecting the rim and playing defense but they can't contribute offensively. Bam Adebayo is undersized for a PF and lacks the length to be a factor defensively or the skill set to be a factor offensive. Best case scenario he's an energy big who grabs a few rebounds. The guy with the highest ceiling is Zach Collins because he at least offers the potential to contribute on both sides of the court. He shows some ability to block shots and protect the rim, while also exhibiting a decent stroke on his jump shot. His problem is he's only 230 lbs and lacks the girth to guard anyone in the post.

Second Round Steals (guys who probably won't be drafted in the 1st round but can make NBA teams)

- P.J. Dozier
- Ivan Rabb
 
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#3
#3
First love from all that time spent in the gyms on Duke?

Multiple teams are in on Fultz being #1

Who cares what multiple teams think. Anthony Bennett went 1st overall a few years ago and he's already out of the league.

All I know is Markelle Fultz is not in the same class as Jayson Tatum and Lonzo Ball. Those two guys are the class of this draft and the only surefire superstars in the group.
 
#5
#5
Who cares what multiple teams think. Anthony Bennett went 1st overall a few years ago and he's already out of the league.

All I know is Markelle Fultz is not in the same class as Jayson Tatum and Lonzo Ball. Those two guys are the class of this draft and the only surefire superstars in the group.
Bennett was projected to go anywhere from 4-8. Cleveland reached big time
 
#6
#6
Who cares what multiple teams think. Anthony Bennett went 1st overall a few years ago and he's already out of the league.

All I know is Markelle Fultz is not in the same class as Jayson Tatum and Lonzo Ball. Those two guys are the class of this draft and the only surefire superstars in the group.

I have more trust in a North Korean prison than your draft analytics.
 
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#7
#7
James Harden is a good comp for Fultz

Nope. He's more like Eric Gordon mixed with some CJ McCollum.

He'll be a decent 3rd option for the Sixers behind Embiid and Simmons. He'll provide decent scoring when they are on the bench and good spacing when they are on the court. His defense is terrible so he'll never be an elite all-around player. Oh and in case I haven't said it before. He's not a PG.

He's a decent fit for the Sixers but him going 1st overall ahead of superior talents like Jayson Tatum and Lonzo Ball is criminal.
 
#8
#8
Nope. He's more like Eric Gordon mixed with some CJ McCollum.

He'll be a decent 3rd option for the Sixers behind Embiid and Simmons. He'll provide decent scoring when they are on the bench and good spacing when they are on the court. His defense is terrible so he'll never be an elite all-around player. Oh and in case I haven't said it before. He's not a PG.

He's a decent fit for the Sixers but him going 1st overall ahead of superior talents like Jayson Tatum and Lonzo Ball is criminal.

Since when does the NBA care anything about defense?
 
#9
#9
Since when does the NBA care anything about defense?

People that don't watch the NBA think this. NBA defense is so good. Jimmer Fredette can't even make a team but he averaged 28.9 ppg in college and 37.6 ppg in China...

So if they don't play defense in the NBA, where do they play it?
 
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#10
#10
I would put Lonzo Ball closer to Kidd than Penny. Penny was a lot more athletic than Lonzo is, and was a better scorer. If (big if) Giles can somehow get healthy he will be outstanding. I think you have Dennis Smith rated too low, I really think he's going to be very good, a freak athlete.
 
#11
#11
People that don't watch the NBA think this. NBA defense is so good. Jimmer Fredette can't even make a team but he averaged 28.9 ppg in college and 37.6 ppg in China...

So if they don't play defense in the NBA, where do they play it?

This. There is plenty of really good defense being played in the NBA. Thing is good offense beats good defense.
 
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#13
#13
People that don't watch the NBA think this. NBA defense is so good. Jimmer Fredette can't even make a team but he averaged 28.9 ppg in college and 37.6 ppg in China...

So if they don't play defense in the NBA, where do they play it?

You can follow the score lines and see the difference in the defense in the playoffs vs regular season. The scoring in these Finals is a testament to the run and shoot of GS and Cleveland having to play a similar style to keep up. I don't recall a Finals where both teams avg roughly 120 ppg.

You're right, I rarely watch the NBA, something about rap music and "strobe" lights flashing while the game is in play doesn't excite me. I usually tune in playoff time, this season didn't watch one single playoff game.
 
#14
#14
You can follow the score lines and see the difference in the defense in the playoffs vs regular season. The scoring in these Finals is a testament to the run and shoot of GS and Cleveland having to play a similar style to keep up. I don't recall a Finals where both teams avg roughly 120 ppg.

You're right, I rarely watch the NBA, something about rap music and "strobe" lights flashing while the game is in play doesn't excite me. I usually tune in playoff time, this season didn't watch one single playoff game.

I watched the NBA all season and must have missed those strobe lights.
 
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#15
#15
You can follow the score lines and see the difference in the defense in the playoffs vs regular season. The scoring in these Finals is a testament to the run and shoot of GS and Cleveland having to play a similar style to keep up. I don't recall a Finals where both teams avg roughly 120 ppg.

You're right, I rarely watch the NBA, something about rap music and "strobe" lights flashing while the game is in play doesn't excite me. I usually tune in playoff time, this season didn't watch one single playoff game.

Point totals have a lot to do with pace. The skill players are better than ever. The floor is wide open. GSW and CLE have 4 3 point shooters on the floor at almost all times. The Lakers averaged 116 against the Celtics in 87 and they were barely even shooting 3's. How do they score that much with 3 players that can't shoot?
 
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#16
#16
Nope. He's more like Eric Gordon mixed with some CJ McCollum.

He'll be a decent 3rd option for the Sixers behind Embiid and Simmons. He'll provide decent scoring when they are on the bench and good spacing when they are on the court. His defense is terrible so he'll never be an elite all-around player. Oh and in case I haven't said it before. He's not a PG.

He's a decent fit for the Sixers but him going 1st overall ahead of superior talents like Jayson Tatum and Lonzo Ball is criminal.

Fultz and Eric Gordon are nothing alike when it comes to skill set. Fultz is definitely a PG in today's NBA where the game has moved to combo guards playing the point
 
#17
#17
This. There is plenty of really good defense being played in the NBA. Thing is good offense beats good defense.

It's the same thing in football as basketball. Tempo, tempo, tempo.....More speed, more possessions, more points. The defense being played in the NBA is outstanding compared to college.
 
#18
#18
I would put Lonzo Ball closer to Kidd than Penny. Penny was a lot more athletic than Lonzo is, and was a better scorer. If (big if) Giles can somehow get healthy he will be outstanding. I think you have Dennis Smith rated too low, I really think he's going to be very good, a freak athlete.

Lonzo Ball is actually very athletic. He's just as athletic as Penny. If not moreso. However, you are right when it comes to Penny being a better scorer. That is why I included Jason Kidd as a comp for him. His build and athleticism is like Penny but his actual game is more like Jason Kidd.
 
#19
#19
Fultz and Eric Gordon are nothing alike when it comes to skill set. Fultz is definitely a PG in today's NBA where the game has moved to combo guards playing the point

Maybe he will play the "PG" position like Kyrie Irving is listed as the PG of the Cavaliers during the starting lineups but we all know once the game starts that its really LeBron that is the PG of the team because he dribbles the ball up and sets the offense.

The same thing will happen with Markelle Fultz. He might be listed as the starting PG on the box score but in reality it'll be Ben Simmons who will be playing PG because he will be the one running the offense. Fultz will be reduced to a spot up shooter in the corner like Eric Gordon.
 
#20
#20
Lonzo Ball is actually very athletic. He's just as athletic as Penny. If not moreso. However, you are right when it comes to Penny being a better scorer. That is why I included Jason Kidd as a comp for him. His build and athleticism is like Penny but his actual game is more like Jason Kidd.

I gotta disagree with him being as athletic as Hardaway. Penny was a 6'8" freak who could attack the basket. Lonzo doesn't strike me as the guy who's going to get to the paint and yam it on someone. He's an amazing distributor of the ball, but he's going to be limited offensively scoring his first few years.
 
#21
#21
Maybe he will play the "PG" position like Kyrie Irving is listed as the PG of the Cavaliers during the starting lineups but we all know once the game starts that its really LeBron that is the PG of the team because he dribbles the ball up and sets the offense.

The same thing will happen with Markelle Fultz. He might be listed as the starting PG on the box score but in reality it'll be Ben Simmons who will be playing PG because he will be the one running the offense. Fultz will be reduced to a spot up shooter in the corner like Eric Gordon.

Hmm I think almost every NBA scout would disagree with you. Putting Fultz in the corner would be a huge mismanage of his talents
 
#22
#22
Lonzo will need to fix his mechanics to be an effective scorer. Force him right and he has no choice but to drive bc he won't be able to get that shot off
 
#24
#24
I'd bet money lonzo won't live up to the hype. He will be a solid player nothing more. Tatum fultz and fox imo will be the 3 best players in the draft. You're spot on with the batum Justin Jackson comparison I've been saying the same with him for a while. If my bulls don't trade up I hope we take him
 
#25
#25
I watched the NBA all season and must have missed those strobe lights.

I'm being facetious on the strobe lights, hence the quotations; guess you couldn't follow. The ribbon boards are blinding and constantly flashing something during the game. I attended numerous Heat games while growing up in FL and there was as much of a spectacle going in the arena outside of the game itself.
 
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