Oklahoma Prez Thinks Big XII Should Expand

[bamawriter]

Oklahoma president wants Big 12 to consider re-expanding to 12 schools - CBSSports.com

Are we starting this up again?

 

[butchna]

Houston has been making a surge the last few years and are killing it in recruiting early under Herman. They'd be an interesting addition. If the Big 12 had a championship game last year, tOSU might be talking about THIS season as the year they finally break through.

 

[VolsSportsFan]

Add Houston and BYU.

 

[bamawriter]

Houston has been making a surge the last few years and are killing it in recruiting early under Herman. They'd be an interesting addition. If the Big 12 had a championship game last year, tOSU might be talking about THIS season as the year they finally break through.

Add Houston and BYU.

I can't see them adding a fifth team from the state of TX.

BYU is an obvious choice if they can get over the LDS hang up that the Pac 12 has.

If I were the Big XII, I'd give UCF a serious look.

 

[LouderVol]

BYU would be a good addition and I am still waiting for Boise to join one of the big boys. I don't think its a great fit with the conference but it is better than WVU. jmo.

 

[ainge10heisman]

What about Cincinnati? They probably fit in better with the Big 10 though going by geography.

 

[butchna]

I can't see them adding a fifth team from the state of TX.

BYU is an obvious choice if they can get over the LDS hang up that the Pac 12 has.

If I were the Big XII, I'd give UCF a serious look.

Why not another team from Texas? Think they have a cap? The fact that Baylor was shoehorned in when the Big 12 was formed shows the pull that Lone Star state advocates have in this conference. The only reason TCU hadn't been added before was Longhorn jealousy and opposition...they don't have the same fear of UH. I could see the BYU addition...that's all on the boys in Provo.

 

[bamawriter]

Why not another team from Texas? Think they have a cap? The fact that Baylor was shoehorned in when the Big 12 was formed shows the pull that Lone Star state advocates have in this conference. The only reason TCU hadn't been added before was Longhorn jealousy and opposition...they don't have the same fear of UH.

I agree that if it's up to Texas alone (and it may be) then Houston could get an invite.

But I don't see how adding a fifth TX team makes the conference more money. It's splitting the pie without growing it.

BYU, Cincy, and UCF all make more fiscal sense.

 

[ButchPlz]

I wish they'd cripple the ACC so the SEC could add Virginia Tech and another ACC program.

Realistically I think this is OU's president positioning for a Big XII exit.

 

[butchna]

I agree that if it's up to Texas alone (and it may be) then Houston could get an invite.

But I don't see how adding a fifth TX team makes the conference more money. It's splitting the pie without growing it.

BYU, Cincy, and UCF all make more fiscal sense.

They make more money by getting a championship game and maximizing chances of getting a team in the playoffs. In no world is adding Cincy and/or UCF a bigger cash boon than Houston...Cincy is a smaller program and UCF is at best a wash...plus you're adding travel costs...WVA's one they probably wish they could have back, but they panicked after four teams left.

 

[TrueOrange]

Houston has been making a surge the last few years and are killing it in recruiting early under Herman. They'd be an interesting addition. If the Big 12 had a championship game last year, tOSU might be talking about THIS season as the year they finally break through.

Baylor likely would have still missed out. They were more hurt by their extremely weak out of conference schedule (1-11 SMU, an FCS team, and a 5-win Buffalo) combined with conference being pretty "meh" overall than the lacking a conference championship game.

 

[TrueOrange]

Oklahoma president wants Big 12 to consider re-expanding to 12 schools - CBSSports.com

Are we starting this up again?

Couldn't let this stuff just slide past, huh? We couldn't just have one summer without expansion rumors?

 

[bamawriter]

They make more money by getting a championship game and maximizing chances of getting a team in the playoffs.

If their title game proposal passes, and I think it will, they will be able to play a championship game with 10 members.

In no world is adding Cincy and/or UCF a bigger cash boon than Houston...

All things being equal, you're correct. But all things aren't equal. Houston is a bigger media market than Cincinnati and Orlando, but it's not a new market for the conference. The Big XII already has the most popular team in Houston, and UH is (at best) a distant third. The Big XII needs new markets to maximize their bargaining power when their contract comes due in 10 years.

 

[TrueOrange]

I think this article does a pretty good job breaking it down:

Big 12 expansion: Evaluating BYU, Cincinnati, more - College Football - SI.com

Boren would like the Big 12 to not-so-urgently find two more schools to increase the stability of a league that nearly imploded in 2010 and again in ’11. In that second year, the dawn of Texas’s Longhorn Network and Boren’s flirtation with the Pac-12 played key roles in the losses of Texas A&M and Missouri to the SEC. That the SEC was a far more stable league with better long-term financial prospects probably had something to do with that, too.

But much has changed since then. The Big 12 added TCU and West Virginia to replace the two schools that left in 2011. Boren advocated for Louisville instead of West Virginia, and the Cardinals probably would have been a better geographic fit. (One of the great mysteries of realignment was why some Big 12 leaders said proximity to an airport was important and then spurned Louisville—whose campus is right next to the airport—for West Virginia—whose closest decent-sized airport is in Pittsburgh. But the decision was also based on what television executives preferred at the time.) Six months after the Big 12 added its two newest members, the chairman of Florida State’s board of trustees complained to Warchant.com that the Seminoles should look into potential Big 12 membership. That would have been the time for the Big 12 to strike. Now? It’s tough to find two schools that would help the Big 12.

Was more expansion possible in 2012? Maybe. Maybe not. Eric Barron, Florida State’s president at the time, was adamant that the Seminoles were satisfied with the ACC. But if trustees wanted to talk to the Big 12, Florida State probably was on the table. A combination of Florida State and anyone else would have allowed the Big 12 to be true to its name and would have thrilled television execs into handing the league enough money to ensure none of the existing members had to take a pay cut.

It took another year and losing Maryland to the Big Ten to get it done, but in April 2013, the ACC schools—Florida State included—signed away their media rights to the league through the 2026-27 school year. That effectively ended a wild period of realignment because it meant the members of four of the five wealthiest leagues were locked in for the life of their conferences’ TV contracts. (The SEC doesn’t have a grant of rights deal because it would be insane to leave that cash machine of a conference.) The ACC’s GOR essentially limited the Big 12’s expansion options to BYU and the members of what the College Football Playoff call the “Group of Five” conferences.

This is what makes Boren’s comments Wednesday so puzzling. To add schools, most Big 12 members would need to be convinced that the new members could be added without forcing the current members to take a pay cut. Boren said Wednesday the Big 12’s media rights deal would allow the league to add schools without anyone having to cut their share. “The contract says that our main television contract … if we grow from 10 to 11 or 11 to 12, their payments to us grow proportionally,” Boren told The Oklahoman. “So everybody’s share stays the same. If it’s ‘X’ dollars, it stays ‘X’ dollars."

That may be true of the portion the schools receive from the TV deal, but the Big 12’s revenue sharing policy means the schools would also have to split bowl and College Football Playoff money 12 ways instead of 10. That would cut into the bottom line by a few million. That’s not a big deal for Oklahoma, but it is for Iowa State or Kansas State. The Big 12 distributed $225.9 million to its 10 members for the 2014-15 school year, meaning it would need to choose two schools that would convince ESPN and Fox to add about $45 million a year to its media rights deals. Some of this could be achieved by adding a football championship game, but the NCAA is about to scrap the rule that requires at least 12 teams split into two divisions before a conference can stage a title game. Once that happens, the 10 current Big 12 members could start such a game—if they wanted—and keep all the money for themselves. Since that game would probably be worth $20 million, that means the two new additions would really need to bring an additional $65 million a year to cover what the current members would make by staying at 10. Even if the current TV deal would rise by two shares, someone would have to convince the networks to cover the rest.

 

[TrueOrange]

But the big draw is always to talk about potential teams (like the memphis description):

Big 12 expansion: Evaluating BYU, Cincinnati, more - College Football - SI.com

So, out of BYU and the members of the American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt, which two schools can hit that number? Which two can hit even half that number? Probably none, but let’s look at the likely candidates anyway because it’s June and we have a Power Five school president expressing a desire for his conference to expand.

BYU

The school, which is owned by the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, brings the largest potential audience. BYU is to Mormons what Notre Dame is to Catholics. Of all the remaining expansion candidates, the Cougars probably are the most viable from a brand-name standpoint. BYU’s refusal to play on Sunday could present scheduling issues in every sport except football, though.

Boise State

The Broncos are a national brand and a decent TV draw, but they live in the nation’s 109th largest television market. Realignment has mostly been about opening new television markets. That makes Boise State’s candidacy problematic.

Cincinnati

The Bearcats have five double-digit win seasons in the past 10 years, and they are situated in a large market not currently in the Big 12 footprint. Unfortunately, Cincinnati’s football team is at best No. 4 in the city’s sports pecking order behind Ohio State, the Bengals and the Reds. This will be a common theme. All of the remaining big-market schools don’t necessarily deliver much of that market.

Connecticut

If basketball mattered in conference realignment, the Huskies would already be in a Power Five league. But football drives this train, and UConn football isn’t moving the meter in its own area. Plus, Storrs is even farther away from the Big 12 schools than Morgantown.

Houston

The Cougars were quite successful under Art Briles and Kevin Sumlin and probably will be again under Tom Herman, but they have a location/timing issue. The Big 12 already has the Houston market thanks to its collection of Lone Star State schools, and it isn't in a pinch like when it added TCU. A friend from Houston did, however, convince me that Houston’s candidacy is bolstered by the existence of Killen’s Barbecue in nearby Pearland. Wagyu burnt ends are quite persuasive.

Memphis

If Justin Fuente were to keep the moribund-before-he-got-there Tigers winning and Boren somehow talked his fellow Big 12 presidents into leaving money on the table and expanding, this would be the greatest Cinderella story of realignment. Memphis is a decent-sized market and a good geographic fit.

UCF

Orlando is the nation’s No. 18 market and will only move up, and UCF officials have done a good job in recent years of shedding the commuter-school vibe. Ten years ago, most of the college football fans on campus would have identified as Florida or Florida State fans. That is changing, and the sheer size of the student body (61,000) means the number of earning— and spending—alumni in 2035 will be quite attractive. If the Big 12 is looking to bolster itself for the impending realignment when the current Power Five TV deals expire, the Knights could be a decent pickup in ’25.

USF

Tampa/St. Petersburg is the nation’s No. 13 television market, and a lot of what I wrote about UCF applies to the Bulls as well. But the question for both of the Interstate 4 rivals is how many eyeballs do they actually bring? Orlando and Tampa remain Gators and Seminoles towns.

So while Boren may want to get to 12, he’s going to have a hard time convincing his fellow presidents that they can do it without taking a pay cut. But we do appreciate him giving us something to talk about on a Wednesday in June.

 

[TrueOrange]

I wish they'd cripple the ACC so the SEC could add Virginia Tech and another ACC program.

Realistically I think this is OU's president positioning for a Big XII exit.

ACC lower tier rights are locked up until 2026-27.

The only place OU's president has ever wanted to go was the PAC-12...and they've pretty much responded that they'll only take them if Texas were part of the deal.

 

[TrueOrange]

I can't see them adding a fifth team from the state of TX.

BYU is an obvious choice if they can get over the LDS hang up that the Pac 12 has.

If I were the Big XII, I'd give UCF a serious look.

I might be wrong, but the Big 12 might have that same hang up as well.

Didn't the Big 12 and BYU have talks back in late 2011 or early 2012, and the thing just ended up falling apart?

 

[TrueOrange]

BYU would be a good addition and I am still waiting for Boise to join one of the big boys. I don't think its a great fit with the conference but it is better than WVU. jmo.

Unfortunately for them, that one's probably never going to happen. Boise State just doesn't bring enough financially to the table (be it the covered markets/location or the seen value in media negotiations).

 

[TrueOrange]

I agree that if it's up to Texas alone (and it may be) then Houston could get an invite.

But I don't see how adding a fifth TX team makes the conference more money. It's splitting the pie without growing it.

BYU, Cincy, and UCF all make more fiscal sense.

Honestly, even if given their own choice, I'm not sure I could see Texas deciding to add another team in Texas.

(UCF/USF also might be better than Cincy.)

 

[bamawriter]

Honestly, even if given their own choice, I'm not sure I could see Texas deciding to add another team in Texas.

(UCF/USF also might be better than Cincy.)

I only speculate that Texas might rubber stamp adding Houston because Texas has more money than God, and they are simply going to do what is best for themselves.

The thing Cincinnati has going for it is helping to bridge the geographic gap with West Virginia. Though it's highly likely that the other nine members don't give a wet fart what WV wants.

 

[BigOrange15]

I wish they'd cripple the ACC so the SEC could add Virginia Tech and another ACC program.

Realistically I think this is OU's president positioning for a Big XII exit.

Im not trying to call you out but why would any Tennessee want the SEC to add any school in Virginia? We recruit well in Virginia and North Carolina and adding a school in that state would negate some of the "yeah, but if you play for Tennessee, you can play in the SEC" pitch for kids in 2 of our big 3 out of state recruiting areas.

 

[LouderVol]

they should take Vandy. New market, bridges gap to WVU, TV rights not controlled by the conference. oh wait they want fans.

 

[butchna]

Baylor likely would have still missed out. They were more hurt by their extremely weak out of conference schedule (1-11 SMU, an FCS team, and a 5-win Buffalo) combined with conference being pretty "meh" overall than the lacking a conference championship game.

They win a conference championship game and they're in IMO...especially if the opponent's TCU...conversely the same for TCU. Ohio State snuck in last year...benefitting from THEIR conference championship game. There was still a shred of doubt after Cardale Jones stellar performance whether Ohio State was better or not.

 

[butchna]

If their title game proposal passes, and I think it will, they will be able to play a championship game with 10 members.



All things being equal, you're correct. But all things aren't equal. Houston is a bigger media market than Cincinnati and Orlando, but it's not a new market for the conference. The Big XII already has the most popular team in Houston, and UH is (at best) a distant third. The Big XII needs new markets to maximize their bargaining power when their contract comes due in 10 years.

School's banking on immediate NCAA decisions get left turned on their shells a lot. Just having a school in a market doesn't GIVE you that market. UCF jersey's ever going to supplant the Big 3 Florida schools? Or even register a blip? And Cincy apparel going to take a rack away from the Buckeyes?...Houston has an equal fanbase...rake that in and deposit.

 

[508mikey]

Couldn't let this stuff just slide past, huh? We couldn't just have one summer without expansion rumors?

I know your just joking but they are called the Big 12 so they should actually have 12 schools -- just like the Big 10 has ... oh damn it never mind