 | | 
03-03-2012, 08:32 PM
|
#16 (permalink)
| | Love God, Love Others
Join Date: Dec 2009  Location: Knoxville
Posts: 1,079
Likes: 405
| This game won't be close. uk by 10+ | 
| VN Likes: 2   | |
03-03-2012, 09:22 PM
|
#17 (permalink)
| | Senior Member
| Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardwood_fanatic  It's nothing to do with Gambler's fallacy. It is the FACT that no team has carried a win streak of 18+ games to a title in 36 years. That is a quantitative measurement, not a fallacy. | Is that the stat; is 18 the longest streak a championship team has entered the tournament on since '76? | 
| | |
03-03-2012, 10:07 PM
|
#18 (permalink)
| | Chief Slapahoe
Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Bowling Green, KY
Posts: 6,770
Likes: 545
| Quote:
Originally Posted by ukvols Is that the stat; is 18 the longest streak a championship team has entered the tournament on since '76? | I heard it the other night, and I think it was 18. It was said during a game that wasn't Kentucky's, but they were talking about UK. I tried to research it the best I could, but could not find anything. One could look at every season and break it down, but that would be time consuming. I do believe it is 18, but I could be wrong. | |
| | |
03-03-2012, 10:26 PM
|
#19 (permalink)
| | Chief Slapahoe
Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Bowling Green, KY
Posts: 6,770
Likes: 545
| I didn't have time to scan every team, but I looked at every champion from every year and their record. If they had 3 losses or less, I looked to see where the L's fell. Best I could find was UCLA in 95, who had a 13 game streak going into the tourney, and won 19 to finish it all. Of course UNLV had a 30 game streak before losing to Duke. | |
| | |
03-03-2012, 10:33 PM
|
#20 (permalink)
| | Senior Member
| So, basically the streak that '98 UK had is historically preferred to the streak that '03 UK had. | |
| | |
03-03-2012, 10:34 PM
|
#21 (permalink)
| | Senior Member
| Like bleeding said, just tank the SECT to us. | |
| | |
03-04-2012, 02:55 AM
|
#22 (permalink)
| | Senior Member
Join Date: May 2010 Location: Right Over There
Posts: 922
Likes: 262
| Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardwood_fanatic It's nothing to do with Gambler's fallacy. It is the FACT that no team has carried a win streak of 18+ games to a title in 36 years. That is a quantitative measurement, not a fallacy. | The fallacy is the idea that having that kind of winning streak somehow makes you more likely to lose in the tournament than if you had a loss in there somewhere. That doesn't make any sense. | |
| VN Likes: 2 | |
03-04-2012, 07:52 AM
|
#23 (permalink)
| | Duck in a Pen
Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Chesapeake, VA
Posts: 6,639
Likes: 1,481
| Quote:
Originally Posted by UTRavens The fallacy is the idea that having that kind of winning streak somehow makes you more likely to lose in the tournament than if you had a loss in there somewhere. That doesn't make any sense. | Can't talk logic with a historian or a UK fan. | |
| | |
03-04-2012, 07:53 AM
|
#24 (permalink)
| | Dancing with the Ball
Join Date: Nov 2011 Location: Lexington, Kentucky.
Posts: 7,968
Likes: 520
| What would be UK's streak if they completely win out through both tournies?
__________________
Audaces fortuna iuvat | |
| | |
03-04-2012, 07:58 AM
|
#25 (permalink)
| | Chief Slapahoe
Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Bowling Green, KY
Posts: 6,770
Likes: 545
| I'm using statistics and probability, you're trying to argue fallacy. In 36 years no one has taken a win streak of more than 13 games into the tourney and won the title. Several have taken win streaks like ours in and lost.
Having the win streak does not physically make a difference, and as you say does not make a team more likely to lose, which is not the point I am trying to make. I'm simply saying that statistically speaking, UK is defying the odds by winning the title with this win streak. It isn't "likely."
Not sure how much easier I can make this, even with crayon. | |
| | |
03-04-2012, 08:00 AM
|
#26 (permalink)
| | Dancing with the Ball
Join Date: Nov 2011 Location: Lexington, Kentucky.
Posts: 7,968
Likes: 520
| it's hard for any team to have a 25ish game winning streak going into the tourney.
__________________
Audaces fortuna iuvat | |
| | |
03-04-2012, 08:00 AM
|
#27 (permalink)
| | Chief Slapahoe
Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Bowling Green, KY
Posts: 6,770
Likes: 545
| Quote:
Originally Posted by WesternKyVol Can't talk logic with a historian or a UK fan. | I can't help it that your best math is performed counting fingers and toes. | |
| | |
03-04-2012, 08:09 AM
|
#28 (permalink)
| | Duck in a Pen
Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Chesapeake, VA
Posts: 6,639
Likes: 1,481
| Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardwood_fanatic I can't help it that your best math is performed counting fingers and toes. | History doesn't predict the future. See "random walk theory" on wiki. | |
| | |
03-04-2012, 08:38 AM
|
#29 (permalink)
| | Stooooooooops!
| Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardwood_fanatic I'm using statistics and probability, you're trying to argue fallacy. In 36 years no one has taken a win streak of more than 13 games into the tourney and won the title. Several have taken win streaks like ours in and lost.
Having the win streak does not physically make a difference, and as you say does not make a team more likely to lose, which is not the point I am trying to make. I'm simply saying that statistically speaking, UK is defying the odds by winning the title with this win streak. It isn't "likely."
Not sure how much easier I can make this, even with crayon. | Dry erase board would allow for mistakes. 
I think the Cats are back in command after blowing out the Dawgs the other night. Keep the Florida crowd quiet early, and we win going away. | |
| | |
03-04-2012, 08:41 AM
|
#30 (permalink)
| | Stooooooooops!
| Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardwood_fanatic I can't help it that your best math is performed counting fingers and toes. | As Barbie was infamously quoted, "Math is hard!" | |
| | 
Posting Rules
| You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
| | | |
 | |
Forums |
