| We have been addressing these issues all year long. And just because statistically something is suppossed to happen doesn't mean it will. Maybe we will have perfect circumstances every game of the tournament? My point is that while this article is insightful and fairly accurate from a mathematical standpoint, there are far too many other variables affecting the outcome of the game to think this statistic completely dooms us. Maybe we will catch those elite teams on a night when they are turning the ball over. Just because someone's average turnover ratio is low doesn't mean that some games they don't turn it over more. Not to mention nowhere in that article did he give us the elite teams results of his model (Memphis, Kansas, UCLA, Duke, etc.). While a good read for someone like me (math junkie, MBA in finance), I don't put a whole lot of weight on it. I agree that our chances are diminished when we can't force turnovers, but maybe we will shoot lights out that night. All I know is we have risen to the occasion almost every game this year against stiff competition, and I think that gives us just as good a chance as any to make the Final Four. It doesn't mean I think we are going to at this exact moment. |